Bird Words 3 SPECIAL EDITION: NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview
Predictions for all four of this weekends playoff games.
Good morning and Happy New Year!
The NFL playoffs kick off this week! The field has been cut all the way down to 12 and only the best of the best remain. There are four exciting NFL matchups this weekend, and unlike other weeks in the past, none look like they will particularly disappoint.
Today we look at each match up, what to watch for and who I believe will win each (and my predictions against the spread).
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (Saturday 4:35 pm)
Once again, wild card weekend opens up with the Houston Texans in their reserved early Saturday slot. This year they take on a Buffalo Bills team that held the slot back in 2018 when the Texans missed the playoffs.
Houston has loads of firepower on paper, though none of their top three receiving may be at 100% on Saturday. Will Fuller is slated to miss the game with a groin injury, while Deandre Hopkins (flu) and Kenny Stills (knee) are also dealing with issues this week. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is definitely good enough to make do with a less than stellar receiving corps, though, and the likes of Duke Johnson and Keke Coutee are more than capable of picking up some of the slack.
The Texans defense should get a huge boost this week with the return of star defensive end JJ Watt from injured reserve. The veteran was on a tear earlier this season before an injury took him out of the action, now he is set to return for the biggest game of the year. His longtime partner upfront Whitney Mercillus who has also had an incredible 2019 season. There are some questions they still have to answer on the back end, though. Fortunately, the Bills are not a team that are built to take advantage of a less than stellar secondary.
Josh Allen still is not very good, despite what plaudits TV analysts love giving him. While his aggressive playstyle gives the team high potential for a big play whenever he drops back to pass, his sporadic accuracy and often troubling decisions making can cause the team problems.
Buffalo’s strength lies in their defense. They were one of the best of the best in the league and gave almost every offense they faced this season absolute hell. Their elite secondary that features the likes of Tre'davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is skilled enough to match up with the Texans skill players, giving us a matchup of strength vs strength.
Prediction: Texans win (Texans -3)
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (Saturday 8:15 pm)
The AFC Wild Card round closes out Saturday night with the most intriguing game of the opening round. Despite winning another AFC East title, the Patriots may be weaker this year than they have been in previous years. It is clear that long time veteran quarterback Tom Brady is reaching the final stages of his career, and they have been carried this far on the back of their great defense.
On the other hand, the Titans are the surprise team of the year. After making a mid-year switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, they got their season together and fought their way into the AFC playoffs by winning six of their last nine games.
Tannehill is a familiar foe for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The quarterback featured for the Miami Dolphins for the first six years of his career before being dealt to Nashville last offseason. He emerged in 2019, putting his many years as a mediocre, disappointing quarterback, behind him, and emerging as a star. He also has rushing champion Derrick Henry and a great offensive line playing along with him. Combine that with the likes of Corey Davis and stand out rookie receiver AJ Brown and suddenly the Titans have the makings of one of the scariest offenses in the NFL.
New England’s offense seems slightly over matched here. Other than Julian Edelman, they do not have any truly reliable targets for Brady. The retirement of Rob Gronkowski this offseason has left a huge hole in their offense. They will need their defense to hold a Titans offense that has been running over everyone in check, as the offense does not have nearly enough to keep up in a shootout.
For the first time in a very long time, we could see the Patriots get bounced in the wild card round. New England’s defense is better than anything the Titans have seen this season, though, and Tannehill is someone Belichick already has years of experience gameplanning for.
Prediction: Patriots win (Titans +5)
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1:05 pm)
The NFC side of the playoff bracket kicks off on Sunday, where a juggernaut Saints team opens up a playoff run that many believe will end in the Super Bowl title. The Vikings will be an extremely tough test in round one, though.
Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara all had big years once again, even though Brees was absent for part of the season. Free agency addition Jared Cook has proven to be a boon to the roster at tight end as well. They lead a New Orleans offense that is still among the best in the league, and has given pretty much everyone they have faced this season more than what they can handle.
Their defense is also elite. Marshonn Lattimore headlines a great secondary while perennial defensive player of the year candidate Cam Jordan leads one of the league's best pass rushes. Sophomore pass rusher Marcus Davenport has taken a huge leap forward in year two as well. New Orleans has elite talent at every level on both sides of the ball. They will be a tough out this month.
Minnesota has loads of talent as well, though. While they enter the playoffs as a wild card, they have the makings of a top seeded team in a season where the NFC was not so top heavy. On offense, oft-maligned quarterback Kirk Cousins has been playing at a much higher level than he gets credit for, and he and receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen have put their early season woes behind them and are now clicking at a high level. Running back Dalvin Cook is also set to return from injury this week, meaning one of the best skill position groupings in all of football will be at full strength.
The Vikings defense is loaded with talent as well. Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter form one of the leagues best pass rushing duos. Behind them, Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are playing as good as ever. There are some concerns on the back end, though. Xavier Rhodes is not the elite corner many think he is, and while Mike Hughes and Trae Waynes are fine players, both are prone enough to make mistakes that they could potentially prove to be liabilities against the Saints powerful offense.
Minnesota probably has what it takes to give the Saints a fight, but their defense is due to break eventually. If New Orleans can avoid committing any disastrous turnovers, they should be able to win this one. Expect it to be a game that remains close throughout, until New Orleans pulls away late.
Prediction: Saints win (Saints -7.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 4:40 pm)
Seattle was inches away from stealing the NFC West crown from the San Francisco 49ers, but came up just short. Now, Instead of getting to host a playoff game in the comforts of Centurylink Field, they instead are forced to travel cross country to take on the Eagles in a tough road environment.
The Seahawks are definitely the better team on paper here. They are among the best teams in the league and quarterback Russel Wilson would most likely have been your MVP this year if Lamar Jackson did not go on a tear. While losing their top three running backs will clearly hurt them - and as we saw last week Marshawn Lynch is just a shell of his former self - they still have enough to give any team a fight.
A road playoff game is always tough, though, especially when you have to travel as far as the Seahawks do. Luckily for Seattle, their opponents will not quite be at full strength.
We all know how hard injuries have hit the Eagles this season. It feels that every week we still do not know what players will be on the field come Sunday morning. Last week, in a must win game, Philadelphia’s skill players were almost all rookie, undrafted players and guys off of either the streets or practice squads. They will not be much healthier heading into the Wild Card round.
One man that will be around is Carson Wentz. Philadelphia’s young quarterback has missed out on the last two playoff campaigns due to injury - including the Super Bowl run back in 2018 - but will be healthy enough to feature this time around. He has made the most of the little talent around him, but the Eagles will need a spectacular performance from their franchise quarterback in his first ever playoff appearance if they hope to pull off an unlikely upset.
Prediction: Seahawks win (Seahawks -1.5)
All against the spread predictions are based on what the lines were on January 1st
Bird Words will be back to the regular schedule next Monday with recaps from the weekend of NFL action and a preview of the College Football National Championship.
If you enjoyed reading this, subscribe below so you can get Bird Words in your inbox every Monday morning and never miss out on an issue!
Consider donating on Paypal to keep Bird Words up and running!