Bird Words 5: NFL Wildcard recap, Carson Wentz is cursed, CFP prediction
The opening round of the NFL playoffs and the end of the college one's.
What another great week for the sport of football! This past weekend we saw one of the best wild card weekends in recent memory, with all four on the opening round games being decided by a single possession. We also get the College Football Playoff final tonight, rounding a great 3 days of action.
NFL Wildcard Weekend
Josh Allen is bad, Deshaun Watson shows his flaws
The opening game of wild card weekend was an absolute mess. Tre’Davious White led an incredible defensive effort by the Bills that shut down a Will Fuller-less Houston Texans offense for two-thirds of the game. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson’s first half was one of the worst halves of football he played in his career, and it is not like he did much better in the third quarter.
Then, something changed. Watson put together another signature performance in the third quarter, leading his team to 19 straight unanswered points to erase a 16-0 deficit and nearly win the game in regulation. Buffalo forced overtime with a last gasp field goal, though. Houston inevitably won 22-19 after scoring a field goal deep into the first overtime period, overcoming a shaky day from their star’s on offense (wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was a ghost for much of the game) and making the divisional round.
While the Texans’ comeback was great, it is also interesting to look at how we ended up in that situation at all.
From Houston’s side, while Watson did not get as much help as he needed from his offensive line, he was partly responsible for creating a lot of the pass pressure early on. The quarterback was too quick to bail the pocket and try to scramble, and once he did he was not decisive enough. He would often run himself into no man’s land and just end up taking a sack when he really could have sat in the pocket for an extra second and went through his reads.
This has been a problem for him throughout his career. Watson has never been particularly good at managing and navigating the pocket. He definitely suffers from the problem that many other mobile quarterbacks suffer from, where he almost seems too eager to rely on his feet whenever anything gets slightly sticky in the pocket. It may not be possible to fix this problem, and fixing it might not be worth it as it may reduce his overall playmaking, as quarterbacks all the way back since Randall Cunningham have had these same troubles.
And then there is Josh Allen. The sentient roulette wheel who somehow stumbled his way into a job as an NFL quarterback. Outside of one drive early on in the game, Allen was a disaster as a passer. His accuracy was everywhere and he missed the easiest of throws. His decision making was spotty as well, as he often chose to test coverage deep instead of taking the simpler throws underneath. He nearly cost his team the game when he attempted a lateral as he fell to the ground on a late run. Despite the Bills having a stranglehold over the first 40 minutes of the game, Buffalo could only manage a 16 point lead due to their offenses struggles. These offensive failures cost them the game, as the lead they built by dominating an entire game vanished in almost an instant.
Just like Watson, the problems Allen showed are also ones that have haunted him his entire career. He has never been very accurate. His decision making has always been terrible and he always seems to play like he needs to win the game on one play, often refusing to take the easy play in order to live another down.
The problems Allen showed are more worrying than those of Watson, though. Watson’s issues seem minor in the grand scheme of things, and he has shown tons of times in the past that he has the ability to single handedly lead his team to victory. Allen is a bad quarterback and seems like he is a long way from playing like a good one.
Derrick Henry slays the mighty beast
Derrick Henry is a tank.
The running back ran for 182 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries, over double the amount of passing yards from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, en route to a huge 20-13 upset win by the Tennessee Titans over the New England Patriots. There was a span of nearly an entire quarter where he was the only player on the Titans offense to produce any yards. We often use the term “carried to victory” in sports - hell I used it up there with Watson - but this was an example of a player literally carrying an entire football team to victory in a playoff game.
Tennessee’s defense did great as well. They stuffed the Patriots rushing attack and quarterback Tom Brady is not the player he once was, and could not beat the Titans through the air. New England also did not have much of the ball, though, as the Titans rushing attack controlled possession for much of the game.
This Titans performance is not sustainable, obviously. They will need have a real passing attack if they expect to beat the Baltimore Ravens next weekend, and there is no way they hold a Lamar Jackson led offense to 13 points. Saturday night was a magical night for their franchise, and everyone involved though.
Is this the end of the Patriots dynasty?
New England has been knocked out in the wild card round of the playoffs for the first time in a decade, and it does not feel like some freak accident. While the defense is elite - among the best in the Bill Belichick era - it is clear that Brady is not the quarterback that he once was. The six time Super Bowl champions arm strength has fallen off a cliff and he seems to be missing more passes and making more bad decisions than ever.
The veteran quarterback is also a free agent this year for the first time in his career, and will be free to sign with any other team. It also means that the Patriots are free to move on from the quarterback with no repercussions. The offense as a whole may need to be rebuilt from top to bottom, as Julian Edelman may be the only truly reliable player on that side of the ball, and it’s not like he is particularly great or anything.
For the first time in a very long time, the Patriots may have to enter a period of rebuilding. Their defense is incredible, though, and gives them more to work with than your average team trying to reboot.
Similar: Ryan Tannehill fulfilled his destiny
Captain Kirk got his signature win
If you have watched any Minnesota Vikings broadcast over the past two years then you have definitely heard a commentator cite quarterback Kirk Cousins’s failures in big games. Whether it’s Monday Night Football, games against playoff teams, road games or pretty much any game someone wants to use to discredit Cousins, it seems that he can not win anything (despite leading his team to back to back winning seasons and a playoff appearance this year).
Those narratives died this weekend.
Cousins and his Vikings rolled into the Superdome and knocked off all-time NFL passing leader Drew Brees and his New Orleans Saints 26-20 in overtime, on the road. A Saints team that was the supposed favorite to be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl saw their season end in the postseasons opening weekend, and at the hands of the oft-maligned Cousins.
New Orleans offense had a lot of trouble cracking a tough Vikings defense, and a late fumble by Brees killed his team’s best chance to take a late lead. The Saints did put together similar to that of the Texans the day before, and managed to force overtime after a great fourth quarter.
Minnesota got the ball first in the overtime period, and Cousins made sure the Saints never got a chance. The quarterback drove his team downfield and all the way to the goal line. After a few failed runs, Cousins got his chance, and hit Kyle Rudolph in the back corner of the end zone on a fade route, ending the Saints season and winning the biggest game of his career.
Cousins has been one of the most scrutinized players in the league since he signed a fully guaranteed, $84 million, deal in 2018. The criticism was never proportional to his level of play. In 2018 he was an above average quarterback, in 2019, he was a top tier quarterback. Despite this, since he could not “win the big game”, none of his good play mattered.
Well, now he won the big game.
You like that?
Carson Wentz is cursed
This Sunday was the playoff debut of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. After leading his team to the NFCs top seed in 2017, Wentz ended up missing the playoffs due to a knee injury suffered late in the year. In 2018, a back injury caused him to miss the end of the season and eventual playoff run as well. Now, four years into his NFL career and on the third playoff roster of his career, Wentz was finally going to get his shot as the Eagles took on the Seattle Seahawks in the opening round of the playoffs.
One of the most popular most scrutinized and most talked about players in the league was going to finally play in the postseason.
And then he ended up leaving the game in the first quarter with a concussion. He was later declared out. After only throwing four passes, his long awaited playoff debut was already over.
Josh McCown came in to take over the Eagles offense. Obviously, losing their starting quarterback (on top of the tons of other injuries the Eagles offense has suffered) condemned them. Philadelphia never found the end zone in a 17-9 loss.
It is a disappointing end to a season where many believed that the Eagles would compete for a Super Bowl. While even healthy they still would not have been favorites, it is yet another tragic end to the season for Wentz.
The Eagles still kept the game close, at least, which brings me to my next point
What the hell is wrong with the Seahawks
Even before Wentz was injured, Seattle should have easily won their wild card match up in Philly. They were a better team, even without their top running backs healthy. They have one of the league's best quarterbacks in Russel Wilson, a good defense, and a much shorter injury report than their opponent.
Despite that, the Eagles managed to stick around until the very end. Seattle could only score 17 points, and allowed a Josh McCown led offense to put together a few scoring drives on them. They were a much better team, but still only won by eight points.
This has been a problem for the Seahawks all season. They often play down to opponents and manage to let the worst of teams give them real fights. This is the same team that beat the top seeded San Francisco 49ers in one game, and were a yard away from beating them again in Week 17 and earning a first round bye.
This team should have steamrolled the Eagles but failed to. I’m not sure if we should be worried about this, as they often play up to opponent’s strengths as well, but it is a real problem they will have to fix at some point.
CFP Final
The Tiger bowl, except one tiger is a lot stronger than the other
The LSU Tigers should beat the Clemson Tigers tonight. Heisman winning quarterback Joe Burrow is the best player in the nation, and is coming off one of the greatest college football performances of all time against the Oklahoma Sooners last week. Their offense feels like a more sophisticated version of a Big XII one, but with a slightly better defense (though LSU’s defense has some problems of their own).
The Clemson Tigers surprised many in the college football world by taking down the juggernaut Ohio State Buckeyes. They are now 14-0 on the season and have not lost a game in over two calendar years. They will run into the other juggernaut of the 2019 season in LSU.
Trevor Lawrence is Clemson’s answer at quarterback to Burrow. Lawrence remains one of the top quarterback talents in the country, despite an iffy season. He can take down any defense on any given day, and if tonight proves to be one of those days then Clemson may be lifting the CFP championship trophy once again. It may have to be one of those days for Clemson to come out on top.
LSU has been a better team all year, despite the team’s identical records up to this point. It is hard to see how Clemson’s offense manages to keep up with their fellow striped opponents.
Prediction: LSU (LSU -6)
What I’m watching this week
Netflix’s The Witcher was an interesting watch. As you can see in the article linked just above this, the show is pretty hard to watch. Early on in the show, I truly had no idea what was going on, and almost dropped it. I stuck with it, though, and am extremely happy that I did as it really does all tie together late in the season. If you have the time and patience, I would recommend you watch it.
Other things I wrote this week:
The Witcher has an exposition problem- Medium
Andrew Yang suffers from the religion of American capitalism- Medium
10 plays that defined the Detroit Lions 2019 season- Pride of Detroit
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Be on the lookout for my CFP Championship recap tomorrow morning and my NFL Divisional weekend preview on Thursday morning!